Friday, October 29, 2004

My Prediction: I never understood why political types make predictions. If you're right, nobody cares. If you're wrong, people hold it over your head forever.

That being said, I spent some time procrastinating at work compiling what I think the final Electoral College tally will be. So, I thought I'd share. All predictions wrong, or your money back (apologies to Gregg Easterbrook).

Final Tally: Bush 276 and Kerry 262

State by State Breakdown, in order of percentage of the popular vote won, from Bush to Kerry. (Electoral vote count for each state in parentheses):

Wyoming (3) Bush
Utah (5) Bush
Idaho (4) Bush
Texas (34) Bush
Oklahoma (7) Bush
Kansas (6) Bush
Nebraska (5) Bush
North Dakota (3) Bush
South Dakota (3) Bush
Montana (3) Bush
Alaska (3) Bush
Alabama (9) Bush
Georgia (15) Bush
South Carolina (8) Bush
Indiana (11) Bush
Kentucky (8) Bush
Mississippi (6) Bush
North Carolina (15) Bush
Louisiana (9) Bush
Tennessee (11) Bush
Arizona (10) Bush
Virginia (13) Bush
Arkansas (6) Bush
Missouri (11) Bush -- (208 definite votes for Bush)
-------Swingin'-------
New Mexico (5) Bush
Nevada (5) Bush
West Virginia (5) Bush
Colorado (9) Bush*
Florida (27) Bush
Iowa (7) Bush
Wisconsin (10) Bush -- (68 iffy votes for Bush)
Ohio (20) Kerry
Pennsylvania (21) Kerry
Michigan (17) Kerry
New Hampshire (4) Kerry
Minnesota (10) Kerry -- (72 iffy votes for Kerry)
--------Swung-------
New Jersey (15) Kerry
Hawaii (4) Kerry
Delaware (3) Kerry
Maine (4) Kerry
Oregon (7) Kerry
Washington (11) Kerry
California (55) Kerry
Connecticut (7) Kerry
Maryland (10) Kerry
New York (31) Kerry
Vermont (3) Kerry
Rhode Island (4) Kerry
Illinois (21) Kerry
Massachusetts (12) Kerry
District of Columbia (3) Kerry -- (190 definite votes for Kerry)

*There is that item on the Colorado ballot to change the state's electoral vote winnings from a winner-take-all standard to a proportional distribution, effective this election. If that passes, then Bush would most likely get 5 and Kerry would get 4, changing the final outcome to Bush 272 and Kerry 266.