Monday, April 19, 2004

Nothing's Changed: People keep citing polls that show Kerry up, then Bush up, then Kerry up, then none of the above. It really doesn't matter. We know it's going to be close, so prognostications now are premature. The election will be determined by outside factors, and those won't come into play until October and November, not April.

The two outside issues will be the war in Iraq and the next terrorist attack here in the United States. And both will center around terrorist actions here and abroad.

Terrorists have publicly proclaimed that they want Bush to win, saying that he is so divisive that he's good for terrorist recruitment. I doubt that the terrorists seriously want four more years of Bush. They hate the man, and they want to hurt him by any means possible, including politically. They have already said that they "cannot drive America out of Iraq, but we can drive Bush out of the White House." And that seems to be their goal.

What we don't know is how the American public will react to the next attacks on our homeland. Would a terrorist attack just before Election Day (a la Madrid) help Bush or hurt Bush? No doubt the terrorists are trying to figure out the same thing. And that will help determine whether there will be a terrorist attack in time for the election. I'm wagering that there will be one, but it would depend on what the terrorists believe they can gain through such an attack.

Last time we were attacked, the nation rallied around Bush. But times have changed. There is so much hatred for Bush in this country, some people will try to blame the president and his operations in Iraq for any new terrorists attacks. This, of course, is preposterous considering we didn't do anything to provoke the terrorists before 9/11 or before the many other terrorist attacks. True or not, Bush's enemies will say it nonetheless.

So we can give the pollsters a break. We don't need second by second stats on whether Bush or Kerry is leading the election. Too much is going to change between now and Election Day.